Last week I discussed how things were changing locally. Now, the sun is shining and the lockdown is pretty much total. It's like we are in a post-apocalyptic movie; there's hardly any traffic, the buses are still passing our house every ten minutes or so, but this time they are almost always empty. On the other hand, I have never seen so many walkers. Carefully spaced out into family groups, dodging into the road rather than risking getting too close, they have occupied the peri-urban lanes and paths like nothing we've seen before. 

It makes sense. Why not explore your locality in the 1 hour of exercise outside the house you are allowed. You can't go the gym, can't go shopping, the tourist attractions have all closed - even the RSPB nature reserves. I wonder, will people get to like this, will there be more support for traffic controls, and more desire to open up the peri-urban areas with more paths and green spaces? And will these ideas start to feed into regional planning?

How quickly things can change. The country is starting to shut down. The University essentially shuts down its campus tomorrow, but will try to keep going through online resources. Schools will also close tomorrow, and sports events are winding down, while we are advised not to go to pubs, cinemas and restaurants. Overseas holidays are done for now, and the cruise business may struggle to recover as some of the larger ships have turned into mobile disease incubators. And for us, we are in self-declared isolation, as one of our friends just may have been infected when Helen saw her at the weekend, and my aged mother routine of shopping, teas with friends and family, has come to a crashing halt.

And yet. Our neighbours in our tiny part of north Leeds have set up a WhatsApp group, and are collecting prescriptions on our behalf. While the big supermarkets are struggling to keep us supplied, more local companies are stepping up. Our dairy produce is being delivered from a farm just a few miles to the north. One of our local cafes is providing a general grocery delivery service, as the cafe business goes on hold. The food shortages in our local shops now extend to flour and veg, as the opportunity for more home cooking presents itself.

Are these tentative steps towards the more local, sustainable, community-based food system that we've been talking about? 

As I write, I get the impression we are moving rather bumpily towards the new world order that will come with climate change.

The status quo is one of increasing international travel, increasing globalisation of supply chains, decreasing regulation and lighter touch government. It's estimated that there were 1.4 billion international tourism arrivals in 2018. We have neighbours who are taking 3 intercontinental holidays this year alone. My sons are hoping to be working in South Korea or New Zealand this year, and there are lots more trans-national romances among young people. This is a different world from the one I grew up in, where we seemed to range over around 10 miles, and international travel was the object of TV shows, but not reality. The carbon footprint of flights is around 2.5% of global emissions, but was expected to grow rapidly, a situation clearly not compatible with reducing our carbon footprint. But the coronavirus outbreak is slashing the number of flights as demand crashes. My own forthcoming trip to EFSA in Parma, in northern Italy, has been replaced with web conferences.  Will we see a smaller, leaner, less polluting travel industry? And if so, will the environmental benefits being brought through eco-tourism be lost? 

The last time I was in China (well before the virus outbreak), a new factory had swung into production. I was told it was going to make all the automatic gearboxes for Volvo. Some of our food supply chains are incredibly complex. Such globalisation of supply chains brings benefits in terms of cost, but risk being disrupted in there are major problems in transport. Then what? We can wait a bit longer for a new car, but what about the risks to our food supplies?

One proposed solution is the re-localisation of food supply chains. This can easily sound like a return to digging for victory, the re-focussing on local food. But local food production is suffering from climate change now. We have a smallholding near Leeds, and the land is far more waterlogged than ever I have seen it. Many farmers in our area have been unable to plant their crops, or watched them rot in the fields during this winter of mild, stormy, wet weather. And even if we could figure out how to maintain production, the population is far larger than it was, expectations of quality and variety are higher, and of food prices are far lower than in the past. There are real risks to food safety if we shift to novel supply chains, and investment is needed to make them operational at a meaningful level. In other words, the shift towards more localised food systems may be a sensible response to the climate emergency, but needs proactive governance.

The climate emergency is not just something to be endured, it is an opportunity to reframe our ideas about quality of life. To enjoy a community event, to reclaim our local heritage and culture. Never let a good crisis go to waste, as someone once said. I am hopeful about the coronavirus outbreak, that it will bring about much more detailed and timely responses to the climate emergency at the level of families, communities, towns and cities.